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Summary

  • Long term outlook: Up
  • Medium Term Outlook: Down
  • Short Term Outlook: Down
  • Medium term revision Point: Break above 21.31
  • Potential Medium Term Targets: 8.45 and lower

The expanded diagonal scenario presented in the last report seems to be holding up for now. We saw the pair turn lower from March 03,’10 high (17.64) and have seen the pair drift lower since then, which calls this top to be marked as the end of wave 4.  For this scenario to hold correct, the market should stay below the January 11,’10 high marked as wave 2.

The second case presented in this report, gives us a slightly different count of this ongoing bearish market. This scenario tells us that December 11,’10 low (16.91) was the end of wave 1. After which we saw a corrective move higher in the form of expanded flat, ending January 11,’10 high (18.89) and thus can be marked as wave 2.  February 05,’10 low (14.66) was the end of wave I.3 and a zigzag correction following it, completing March 10,’10 high (17.64) was the end of wave II.3. This week should see the market break the lows of March 24,’10 low (16.57) and see one of the biggest sell offs, as we’ll be in the making of wave III.3. However, for this scenario to hold valid, the market should stay below March 17,’10 high of 17.58 marked as wave (ii).III.3 for now.

The least possible scenario is the alternative scenario presented in the last weekly report, according to which can expect this pair to break the highs of December 03,’09 (19.46) without sliding below February 5,’10 low (14.66)

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