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Summary

  • Long term outlook: Up
  • Medium Term Outlook: Down
  • Short Term Outlook: Down
  • Medium term revision Point: Break above 1.6038
  • Potential Medium Term Targets: 1.2347 and below
  • Preferred Short Term Strategy:  Looking for high probability, Low Risk Sell signals to take short positions, trading a possible wave five of a larger wave 3 down.

The count presented so far in the last weekly reports is very much in line for now. As expected the market saw a selloff (start of V.3) last week, after completing the wave IV.3 on March 17,’10 high(1.3818) .  March 22,’10 low(1.3465) was  i.V.3, after which we saw a corrective bounce ending March 23,’10 high (1.3570) to be marked as ii.V.3, followed by a sharp decline ending March 25,’10 low(1.3268) titled iii.V.3. According to this count, the market seems to be well on its way to make wave iv.V.3 and seems to have ended or is very near to its completion, which once complete should see the pair dive lower to new lows. However, for this scenario to hold correct the pair should stay below the March 22,’10 low(1.3465).

Alternatively, assuming the correction to continue, we can mark the March 17.’10 high (1.3818) as the first leg of the possible expanded flat situation in the IV.  March 25,’10 low(1.3268) as the second leg ,can be marked as wave B and this week should see an impulsive action towards 1.3818 figure, to complete the wave C.

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