KSE100 – December 21, 2009
KSE100
Summary
- Long Term Outlook: Up
- Medium Term Outlook: Down
- Short Term Outlook: Up
- Long Term Outlook Revision Point: Break below 4782.25
- Potential Long Term Targets: 11500, 13000 and above
- Current Position: Bullish from 8962 and 8845
- Preferred Strategy: Pull backs below 9136, while keeping above 8816, should be seen as buying opportunities. Targeting 9510, 9720, 10,000 and then 10,500. Break below 8684 forces revision.
Although nominally, but the break above 9382 during the last week, strengthens our opinion that a further upside move is likely to be witnessed during the coming week or weeks. The green line at the farther right in the main chart presents our preferred outlook for the upcoming days. If this assessment is correct, we are then in the third sub-wave of the fifth and final advance, before a medium term correction is seen. We, therefore, expect to see the fastest and the strongest rally of this phase of the move during the next two to three weeks. In view of this outlook, we shall be adding to our position at the emergence of any low risk high probability buy signals, at pull backs. Our targets remain at the 
9510, 9720, 10,000 and then the 10,500 levels.
As a second alternative for now, we shall keep the expectation presented in second image in mind while planning our trades and managing our stops. According to this view, we have completed the first five wave advance of a longer term move on the October 16 high and are currently in a corrective phase of medium term downward move.
Nevertheless, even with this view we expect a rise towards the 9520 to 9650 level, while keeping below the October 16 high.
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