NIFTY – December 21, 2009
NIFTY
Summary
- Long term outlook: Up
- Medium Term Outlook: Down
- Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Up
- Long Term Revision Point: Break below 2252
- Potential Longer Term Targets: 6357 and above
- Highs/Lows: Last 30 days: 5182.55/4806.70, Last 6 Months: 5182.55/3918.75, Last 12 Months: 5182.55/2539.45
With the lows of November 27 (4806.70) still in tact, our preferred count, as depicted in the main image, expects an upward move to complete the c:B:4 wave, before we start the downward move for the C:4 wave, likely to go down in the vicinity of 3910. However, prior to that, in the currently preferred scenario, our expected target for the termination of the wave c:B:4 is close to 5400.
Nevertheless, to avoid being frozen if found on the wrong footing, we must keep the alternative count in view as well. As presented in the second image, our alternative count views the B:4 as having completed on the December 11 high and we have already started the five wave downward move to complete the C:4, with a target at around 3910.
With our preference towards the upside, we shall be looking for the emergence of low risk, high probability buy signals between the current price levels (4987.70) and the November 27 low of 4806.70, to take short term long positions. A break below 4806.70 will change our short term bias towards the downside.
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